Biden is a ‘lame duck’ president – but can he still put pressure on Israel?

With less than 70 days near successful office, United States President Joe Biden has officially entered nan “lame duck” shape of his presidency – nan play of clip betwixt administrations erstwhile a president’s power and expertise to style argumentation dwindle arsenic his successor prepares to return office.

But pinch nan looming extremity of Biden’s five-decade governmental profession comes a last chance to specify his bequest – peculiarly erstwhile it comes to overseas policy, which Biden has agelong viewed arsenic 1 of his signature issues.

For those opposed to nan existent administration’s unwavering support for Israel during its much than yearlong warfare connected Gaza, this lame duck play is simply a last opportunity “to effort to push Biden to move past a bequest of genocide”, said Annelle Sheline, a erstwhile US Department of State charismatic who resigned successful March successful protestation against nan Biden administration’s Israel policy.

But it is improbable that nan management will backtrack connected its multibillion-dollar support for Israel’s warfare aft a twelvemonth of deepening humanitarian situation and large-scale grounds of wide warfare crimes successful which nan US is deeply implicated.

“Now that there’s little of a governmental value to pay, Biden could take to do bully things,” Matt Duss, executive vice president astatine nan Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera. “But it’s ne'er been wholly political; it is ideological. This is conscionable really he believes nan US-Israel narration should work, and that’s pinch fundamentally zero unit connected Israel astir anything.”

“I person nary dream whatsoever that they’ll do thing meaningful, constructive, adjuvant aliases courageous successful these past months,” Duss added.

Robert Hunter, a erstwhile US ambassador to NATO, said Biden should extremity each arms shipments to Israel “tomorrow” but would ne'er do so.

“Biden has passim his profession been a beardown protagonist of Israel,” Hunter told Al Jazeera. “But it intends that whenever he’s had a superior chance to power things, first arsenic vice president and now arsenic president, he has ne'er – isolated from for 1 pause [on shipments of dense bombs] – been consenting to spell against what Israel, and successful peculiar [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, wants him to do.”

“It is thing that he believes in,” Hunter added.

Thirty-day assistance deadline passes

As Democrats measure nan effect of their overseas policy connected Donald Trump’s statesmanlike predetermination victory, location are applicable things that nan management tin – and critics reason should – do earlier Trump takes agency connected January 20.

While immoderate of those measures whitethorn beryllium later reversed by nan Trump administration, they would still person nan expertise to halt aliases astatine slightest slow down Israel’s escalating attacks connected bluish Gaza arsenic good arsenic nonstop a connection to nan nationalist and nan incoming management that nan US does person leverage connected Israel, moreover though it has truthful acold declined to usage it.

On Tuesday, nan Biden management had nan opportunity to guarantee that Israel faced consequences for its actions aft a 30-day deadline that nan management had group connected nan transportation of assistance to Gaza expired. However, arsenic Biden met Israeli President Isaac Herzog astatine nan White House, reiterating Washington’s “ironclad” support for its ally, nan US said location would beryllium nary alteration to subject assistance to Israel, moreover arsenic nan Middle Eastern state grounded to transportation retired nan steps requested by Washington.

“There were a batch of group who said things like, ‘Well, politically, nan Democrats person to proceed to support Israel, aliases this could beryllium an predetermination rumor for them,’” Sheline told Al Jazeera. “And now that nan predetermination is successful nan rear-view mirror, clearly, this is what they want. They opportunity things like, ‘We’re saddened by what’s happening,’ but clearly, they’re not going to usage immoderate leverage.”

“Even now, erstwhile they won’t suffer politically for it, they afloat support everything that’s happening,” she added. “Otherwise, they would really do thing astir it.”

With much than 40,000 Palestinians killed and Israel’s wars successful nan region only widening, nan Biden management choosing to withhold arms, rumor much sanctions aliases clear nan measurement for afloat inclusion of nan authorities of Palestine astatine nan United Nations would do small to reverse nan immense quality costs of its support for Israel truthful far. But those measures could pave nan measurement for a alteration successful attack and unit nan manus of nan Trump administration.

“It is surely late,” Josh Paul, different erstwhile State Department charismatic who resigned past twelvemonth successful protestation against nan administration’s argumentation towards Gaza, said astatine a Forum connected nan Arms Trade and Democracy for nan Arab World Now arena past week.

“That said, it is ne'er excessively late.”

One past opportunity

It’s not uncommon for an exiting management to unreserved done a flurry of policies and measures earlier nan caller management comes in.

In nan past 3 months of Trump’s first word arsenic president earlier Biden took agency successful January 2021, nan management announced much than $23bn successful arms income to nan United Arab Emirates, $500m successful precision ammunition to Saudi Arabia and – pinch little than 1 period near –  $300m successful mini diameter bombs to Saudi Arabia. In January 2021, nan Trump management besides declared Yemen’s Houthi activity a “foreign violent organisation”, a nickname that kicked successful conscionable 1 time earlier Trump near office.

The Biden management could get arsenic engaged if it wants to.

In August, nan management announced $20bn successful arms income to Israel, and nan US Senate is group to measurement successful connected that waste this period aft Senator Bernie Sanders revenge authorities forcing a ballot connected nan matter.

Biden besides has wide leeway to suspend weapons transfers to Israel connected his own, Paul added. And arsenic Trump has sounded himself arsenic nan president who will bring “peace” to nan region – moreover arsenic nan president-elect appoints hardline pro-Israelis to salient positions – halting weapons deliveries to Israel now would displacement nan load of reversing people onto nan adjacent administration.

“That would beryllium thing that nan Trump management would person to make a conscious determination to move backmost on,” Paul said, noting that “changing a argumentation is beautiful easy to do from 1 management to another, but changing a ineligible determination is somewhat harder.”

Beyond applying US laws aliases utilizing US leverage – some steps that nan Biden management has consistently refused to return – nan Biden management could grow its sanctions connected Israeli settlers, perchance targeting Israel’s astir far-right ministers, for illustration Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, arsenic nan United Kingdom is considering. It could perchance besides recognise Palestinian statehood and clear nan measurement for nan UN Security Council to o.k. Palestine arsenic a afloat personnel of nan UN.

“These are to immoderate grade bluish sky,” Paul said. “But they are besides each things wrong nan president’s remit and things that nan president could do if he really wanted to.”

Duss is doubtful nan Biden management will do thing otherwise successful its past weeks successful office.

“When it comes to imposing existent costs, really opinionated up for quality rights, peculiarly Palestinian rights, I don’t expect thing from them,” he said.

“But 1 point I really would want them to do is conscionable show nan truth,” he added, calling connected nan administration, for instance, to merchandise soul reports connected nan six Palestinian NGOs Israel designated arsenic “terrorist groups” successful 2021 aliases to publicise US assessments of nan allegations Israel made against UNRWA, nan UN agency for Palestinian refugees, that immoderate of its unit were progressive successful nan October 7, 2023, attacks against Israel.

“But that would require them to person nan tiniest magnitude of courage,” Duss said.

Every infinitesimal matters

After Republicans won nan White House and power of nan US Senate and will apt triumph nan House of Representatives arsenic well, much critics of US argumentation towards Israel whitethorn belatedly find nan courageousness to speak out.

“I expect that we will spot Democrats abruptly recognising that genocide is incorrect who were unwilling to criticise Biden,” Sheline told Al Jazeera. “I expect that we will spot group who effort to salvage their reputations and say, ‘We were doing what we could connected nan inside.’ But I deliberation nan grounds is clear that nan US had monolithic leverage that it did not use.”

It’s not conscionable Biden’s bequest that’s astatine stake.

“Particularly fixed nan predetermination results, location will beryllium a batch of elder management officials some successful nan White House and successful nan executive agencies who request to commencement really reasoning difficult astir their legacy,” Paul said. “While it is excessively precocious for tens of thousands successful Gaza, I deliberation location are still immoderate opportunities location to salvage thing and besides to nonstop a awesome to their ain statement that it is not excessively precocious for that statement to alteration either.”

“It is ne'er never excessively precocious to do nan correct thing,” he added.

That perchance intends redeeming thousands of lives – thing advocates accent Biden still has nan powerfulness to do.

“He mightiness beryllium a lame duck successful US politics, but he is decidedly not a lame duck arsenic it relates to nan lives of nan Palestinian people, and each day, each infinitesimal matters,” Zeina Ashrawi Hutchison, a Palestinian American governmental analyst, told Al Jazeera past week.

“It’s perfectly [Biden’s] work to instantly extremity nan genocide successful Gaza. He tin do it pinch a telephone call,” she added. “This is an Israel-US accomplice warfare successful nan region, and it is incumbent connected him to really extremity nan genocide earlier he leaves office.”