With Trump win, Africa braces for aid cuts, uncertainty

Lamu, Kenya – As nan results of nan United States statesmanlike predetermination came successful connected Wednesday, showing that erstwhile President Donald Trump had won, alleviation took clasp much than 11,000 kilometres (7,000 miles) away, successful Uganda’s superior Kampala.

“The sanctions are gone,” nan East African country’s parliamentary speaker, Anitah Among, told parliament, hinting astatine her anticipation of improved ties pinch nan US nether Trump. The speaker is 1 of a bid of Ugandan officials who person been barred from entering nan US successful caller years because of allegations of quality authorities violations against them.

But while immoderate African governments that person faced allegations of authoritarianism successful caller years mightiness find logic to celebrate, sanctions are not nan only point that mightiness spell nether Trump, pass analysts: US assistance mightiness too.

Four days aft Trump’s re-election, Africa is grappling pinch nan prospects of what his 2nd word could mean for nan continent.

His triumph connected Tuesday complete Vice President Kamala Harris drew contiguous congratulations from African leaders, pinch Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu, and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa among those to quickly scope retired to Trump.

Yet, galore experts judge Trump’s overseas argumentation will prioritise transactional relationships and displacement distant from multilateral partnerships, pinch aid, trade, and ambiance agreements now uncertain. Trump’s focus, they warn, could beryllium constricted to really Africa fits wrong his broader geopolitical objectives, particularly concerning his rivalry pinch China. Those who autumn successful statement will beryllium favoured, others pressured to conform – that, opportunity analysts, was Trump’s way grounds during his first stint successful power, betwixt 2017 and 2021.

“He is simply a dealer. He transacts based connected what he tin get,” said Christopher Isike, professor of African studies and world relations astatine nan University of Pretoria.

Authoritarian allies

Patrick Bond, professor and governmental sociologist astatine nan University of Johannesburg, said he expected leaders who person faced scrutiny complete their quality authorities records – specified arsenic Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame – to effort to curry favour pinch Trump. Both Museveni and Kagame person agelong been important US allies, and their supporters person pushed backmost against much caller attacks connected their quality authorities records, insisting that nan leaders stay wide celebrated successful their countries.

Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who has besides faced US sanctions, besides praised Trump’s victory, describing him arsenic a leader who “speaks for nan people”.

Samuel Oyewole, a Nigerian governmental subject lecturer, remarked that Trump is improbable to fto quality authorities and antiauthoritarian norms thrust his narration pinch African leaders.

“The accent connected quality authorities and democracy, which was emphasised by Biden, whitethorn not beryllium prioritised for strategical liking nether Trump,” Oyewole told Al Jazeera.

Trump whitethorn really target countries deemed to beryllium acting against US interests, warned Oyewole.

This could strain relationships pinch democracies for illustration South Africa, which has criticised US support for Israel and maintains strong ties pinch Russia and China. South Africa, which – contempt caller tensions pinch Washington, counts connected nan US arsenic a cardinal economical and strategical partner – will not want that.

“I look guardant to continuing nan adjacent and mutually beneficial business betwixt our 2 nations crossed each domains of our cooperation,” Ramaphosa wrote successful his congratulatory connection to Trump connected X.

Economic ties successful jeopardy

Trump’s return to agency besides places nan early of nan African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) successful jeopardy, pinch nan existent statement group to expire adjacent September, opportunity analysts.

The AGOA, first enacted successful 2000, provides African countries pinch duty-free entree to nan US marketplace for circumstantial products. Trump, known for his aversion to multilateral agreements, whitethorn position AGOA arsenic leverage to discuss much advantageous bilateral deals, risking nan existing framework, pass experts.

“Trump will usage each instrumentality astatine his disposal, including AGOA, to strong-arm African governments,” said Isike.

In December 2022, Biden’s management pledged $55bn complete 3 years to African nations, but this finance could beryllium astatine consequence arsenic Trump reorients US overseas assistance towards his strategical priorities.

Bond warned that nan AGOA could beryllium “up for grabs” arsenic Trump leverages these issues successful negotiations.

Oyewole suggested Trump would besides deploy assistance strategically, conditioned connected nan continent’s alignment pinch his interests – conscionable arsenic nan incoming president has threatened to do pinch different parts of nan world, specified arsenic successful Ukraine. “We cannot see Trump to beryllium Father Christmas,” he said.

US assistance to Africa, presently astir $8bn annually, could look cuts nether Trump, particularly programmes for illustration PEPFAR (the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief), which forms a important portion of US aid. Vaccine programmes, HIV/AIDS programmes, and reproductive wellness programmes are among those astatine risk.

Further, analysts said Trump’s ambiance scepticism poses a awesome interest for nan continent.

He antecedently withdrew nan US from nan Paris Climate Agreement, and his re-election raises fears of a repetition exit.

Bond emphasised nan imaginable fallout, stating that Trump’s attack would beryllium “catastrophic” for Africa, which disproportionately bears ambiance change’s consequences contempt minimally contributing to world emissions.

By pulling nan US retired of ambiance agreements, Trump would not only curtail Africa’s entree to world ambiance costs – needed to tackle everything from h2o scarcity to nutrient insecurity – but besides embolden polluting industries globally, amplifying Africa’s ambiance vulnerability, Bond said.

Geopolitical consequences

Trump’s triumph could besides person different geopolitical consequences for Africa.

The Biden management had supported 2 imperishable seats for Africa connected nan United Nations Security Council.

However, Oyewole pointed retired that pinch Trump’s disregard for multilateral institutions, Africa’s longstanding aspiration for UN Security Council reforms whitethorn look caller obstacles.

Trump’s rivalry pinch China besides complicates Africa’s position, fixed China’s heavy investment successful nan continent. Analysts expect Trump to unit African nations to region themselves from Beijing, creating difficult choices for countries reliant connected Chinese infrastructure backing and trade.

Yet, that unit could backfire: Experts reason that Trump’s detachment from Africa could spur nan continent to activity replacement partnerships.

Isike, nan professor, suggested that Trump’s disregard mightiness inadvertently promote African countries to perchance foster stronger intra-continental waste and acquisition and deeper relationships pinch nations successful Asia and nan Middle East.

“If Africa wants to proceed connected handouts and assistance from nan US, past it [Trump’s election] is catastrophic,” Isike said. “But possibly it is simply a bully point for Africa truthful that we tin look elsewhere successful position of our waste and acquisition partners and alliances.”