Ukraine gets green light to use US long-range missiles: What’s next?

United States President Joe Biden has reportedly lifted restrictions connected Kyiv connected nan usage of long-range missiles, which intends Ukrainian forces whitethorn occurrence American-made missiles wrong Russian territory for nan first time.

The move, which comes weeks earlier Biden leaves agency and hours aft monolithic Russian rocket and drone attacks, has angered nan Kremlin, which accused Washington of “throwing lipid connected nan fire”.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said nan determination would mean Washington’s nonstop engagement successful nan conflict, echoing a akin sentiment expressed by President Vladimir Putin successful September.

The White House and President-elect Donald Trump person not commented yet, but Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, said: “The subject business analyzable seems to want to make judge they get World War III going earlier my begetter has a chance to create bid and prevention lives.”

The elder Trump, who takes agency connected January 20, many times pledged during his run to discuss an extremity to nan Ukraine war.

So really important is nan latest move by nan Biden administration, and will this lead to an escalation of nan Ukraine war?

Why did nan US let Ukraine to usage long-range missiles successful Russia?

The US determination was made aft nan deployment of North Korean troops successful Russia’s Kursk region, which was invaded by Ukrainian forces successful August.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pressing his Western allies, including nan US and United Kingdom, for months to let missiles to beryllium utilized against Russia arsenic Moscow’s forces person been making slow but dependable gains successful eastbound Ukraine.

Al Jazeera’s negotiated analogous James Bays said nan “aim of these Western nations is to support Ukraine, peculiarly successful nan area of Russia that Ukraine has occupied, Kursk”.

As galore arsenic 12,000 North Korean soldiers person been sent to Russia, according to nan US, Ukraine and South Korea officials. They person besides accused Pyongyang of supplying weapons to Moscow.

While nan US secretly sent nan missiles to Ukraine successful March, Ukraine had not been allowed to usage them to onslaught wrong Russian territory. As of precocious April, Ukraine had utilized these missiles doubly successful Russia-annexed Crimea.

Biden made nan determination pinch only 9 weeks near successful his presidency. His successor has promised he will discuss a swift extremity to nan war, which has raised uncertainty astir whether nan US, Ukraine’s biggest arms provider, will proceed to nonstop it subject support.

There were recent indications that nan US would let Ukraine to usage nan missiles. In September, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his UK counterpart, Foreign Secretary David Lammy, visited Kyiv and met pinch Zelenskyy. When thanking nan officials for visiting him, Zelenskyy posted connected his X account: “It is important that Ukrainian arguments are heard. This includes nan long-range weapons.”

A time earlier nan visit, Blinken told reporters successful London that he and Lammy would beryllium “listening very intently” connected nan matter and reporting back. On nan aforesaid day, Biden told reporters: “We’re moving that retired correct now.”

What are these long-range missiles?

The missiles supplied by nan US to Ukraine are called nan Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). They person a scope of 300km (190 miles) and were first developed successful nan 1980s.

The ATACMS, built by US defence shaper Lockheed Martin, tin beryllium launched utilizing HIMARS launchers sent to Ukraine by nan US astir July 2022. The missiles tin besides beryllium launched by nan US-made M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System, sent to Ukraine by nan UK successful 2022.

Before sending nan longer scope ATACMS, nan US had sent Ukraine a shorter scope type tin of firing arsenic acold arsenic 165km (100 miles) successful October 2023.

Why are nan long-range missiles important for Ukraine?

Ukraine tin usage nan long-range tactical missiles to onslaught concentrations of Russian and North Korean troops successful Kursk, which sits connected Ukraine’s border, arsenic good arsenic subject instrumentality wrong Russian territory.

Kyiv is astir apt to onslaught Russia astir nan Kursk region, US officials said, according to The New York Times.

Ukrainian soldiers seized 28 settlements spanning astir 1,000sq km (386sq miles) successful Kursk during an incursion launched successful August. North Korean soldiers are reportedly concentrated adjacent Kursk.

“Ukraine needs to beryllium capable to deed Russian proviso chains which it has moved backmost beyond existent Ukrainian rocket range,” Timothy Ash, an subordinate chap successful nan Russia and Eurasia programme astatine Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

Ash speculated that nan determination to springiness Kyiv long-range capabilities could besides beryllium “aimed astatine giving Ukraine much leverage successful early negotiations”.

“Once nan capacity has been given, it is harder to return away,” he said. “[Putin] will want to discuss limits connected Ukraine’s subject capabilities.”

Ash added that renewed unit successful Kursk is likely. On November 11, Zelenskyy said successful a Telegram station that Ukrainian soldiers were fighting against astir “50,000 force troops” successful Kursk. This came a time aft The New York Times reported that Moscow had assembled 50,000 soldiers, including North Koreans in Kursk.

How person Ukraine and Russia reacted?

Zelenskyy said successful an evening reside connected Sunday: “Today, galore successful nan media are saying that we person received support to return due actions.”

He added: “Strikes are not made pinch words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.”

Moscow said nan rocket determination would lead to a emergence successful tensions.

“If specified a determination was so formulated and brought to nan Kyiv regime, past this is simply a qualitatively caller information of hostility and a qualitatively caller business from nan constituent of position of US engagement successful this conflict,” Peskov said.

“It is evident that nan outgoing management successful Washington intends to return steps to proceed adding substance to nan occurrence and proceed to provoke hostility astir this conflict,” he said.

Russian lawmaker Maria Butina told nan Reuters news agency that it would consequence nan commencement of a world conflict. “I person a awesome dream that Trump will flooded this determination if this has been made because they are earnestly risking nan commencement of World War III, which is not successful anybody’s interest.”

Putin had warned nan West 2 months agone against allowing nan usage of long-range missiles successful Russian territory.

“If this is so, then, base successful mind nan alteration successful nan very principle of this conflict, we will make due decisions based connected nan threats that will beryllium created for us,” Putin told Russian authorities tv astatine nan time.

What’s next?

Ash said Kyiv needs to usage nan long-range missiles to dent Russian violative capabilities.

“It looks for illustration Russia will escalate complete nan adjacent mates of months earlier nan Trump presidency and apt negotiations. So Ukraine needs to beryllium capable to deed longer scope to dent Russia’s violative capabilities,” he said.

Putin congratulated Trump connected his victory, lauding nan US president-elect arsenic “courageous”, adding he is fresh to person talks pinch Trump. Despite this, Russia has continued its attacks connected Ukraine.

“Russia has been escalating anyhow complete caller weeks, seemingly ignoring Trump’s petition to Putin not to escalate,” Ash added.

The Kremlin, however, denied reports that said Trump had spoken pinch Putin and urged nan Russian leader to not escalate nan warfare successful Ukraine.

On Monday, Russia carried retired its largest rocket and drone strikes connected Ukraine successful months, targeting power infrastructure. At slightest 11 group were killed successful nan attack, according to Ukrainian authorities.

The UK and France, which person besides provided long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, could perchance let Kyiv to onslaught wrong Russian territory. Storm Shadow missiles, besides called SCALP, tin deed targets up to 250km (155 miles) away.

French newspaper Le Monde, quoting nan country’s overseas minister, reported that Paris is unfastened to allowing Ukraine to usage its long-range missiles to onslaught wrong Russian territory.