Trump signals hard line on China with hawkish cabinet picks

Taipei, Taiwan – United States President-elect Donald Trump is filling his incoming administration pinch figures known for their hawkish views connected China, signalling a reliable statement connected Beijing successful areas ranging from nationalist information to trade.

Trump connected Tuesday nominated erstwhile Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe to caput nan Central Intelligence Agency, FOX News big and service seasoned Pete Hegseth arsenic caput of defence, and Florida Congressman Michael Waltz arsenic nationalist information adviser.

On Monday, nan president-elect named Elise Stefanik, a House typical from New York, arsenic his prime for United Nations ambassador.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, meanwhile, is wide expected to beryllium tapped for caput of state.

All 5 are known for viewing nan US and China arsenic being locked successful a Manichean struggle for powerfulness and advocating a difficult statement towards Beijing.

Trump connected Tuesday besides named Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a “Department of Government Efficiency“.

Unlike different figures successful Trump’s cabinet, Musk, who has extended business interests successful China, is known for his comparatively affirmative views astir nan Chinese government.

Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe testifies earlier a proceeding connected Capitol Hill successful Washington, DC, connected April 18, 2023 [Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP]

Other notable China hawks who person been floated arsenic candidates to subordinate Trump’s management see erstwhile Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty and erstwhile US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal, citing group acquainted pinch nan matter, reported that Trump plans to sanction Lighthizer arsenic his “trade czar”.

Lighthizer played an instrumental domiciled successful Trump’s waste and acquisition warfare during his first word successful office, helping to trade tariffs connected $380bn worthy of Chinese goods.

He could play a akin domiciled again if Trump chooses to make bully connected his run promise of imposing tariffs of 60 percent aliases much connected Chinese equipment and a 10-20 percent tariff connected each different imports.

In his book No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking connected China, and Helping America’s Workers, Lighthizer called for further “decoupling” from China by limiting trade, including exports of captious technology.

In a caller op-ed for The Financial Times, he accused different countries of “adopting business policies that are designed not to raise their modular of living, but to summation exports successful bid some to accumulate assets overseas and to found their advantage successful leading-edge industries”.

“These are not nan marketplace forces of Smith and Ricardo. These are beggar thy neighbour policies that were condemned early successful nan past century,” Lighthizer wrote, referring to nan famed British economists Adam Smith and David Ricardo.

Trump’s projected tariffs would not only impact China but besides resound passim Asia owed to nan region’s adjacent links to nan world’s second-largest economy.

Analysts astatine nan London School of Economics and Political Science person estimated that Trump’s projected tariffs would consequence successful a 0.68 percent simplification successful China’s gross home merchandise (GDP), pinch neighbours India and Indonesia facing smaller losses of 0.03 percent and 0.06 percent, respectively.

Trump’s 2nd word successful agency besides comes amid rising tensions betwixt China and self-governing Taiwan, which Beijing claims arsenic its territory.

US Admiral Philip Davidson, nan erstwhile main of nan US Indo-Pacific Command, has estimated that China’s service will person nan capacity to invade nan land by 2027, which falls wrong Trump’s term.

Against this backdrop, galore of Trump’s apical picks look group to put Washington connected nan way to confrontation pinch Beijing.

Senator Marco Rubio speaks during a run rally for Donald Trump successful Raleigh, North Carolina connected November 4, 2024 [Evan Vucci/AP]

If confirmed arsenic Washington’s apical diplomat, Rubio would beryllium nan first sitting caput of authorities to person been sanctioned by Beijing.

As nan vice president of nan Senate Select Committee connected Intelligence and a elder personnel of nan Senate Committee connected Foreign Relations, Rubio is known arsenic a strident professional of nan Chinese government.

Rubio was banned from China successful 2020 complete comments he made astir nan curen of taste minorities successful Xinjiang province, and was included connected a database of 11 US officials who were sanctioned successful retaliation for US sanctions targeting Beijing’s crackdown connected dissent successful Hong Kong.

In nan lead-up to his re-election successful nan 2022 midterm elections, he was singled retired arsenic a target of Chinese power operations, according to an October study by nan Microsoft Threat Analysis Center.

Rubio is besides known arsenic a salient protagonist of Taiwan, a stance he is expected to support arsenic nan US’s apical diplomat, according to analysts.

“It’s difficult to ideate Marco Rubio supporting a US move distant from Taiwan. It’s very difficult to ideate Marco Rubio presiding complete a détente betwixt nan US and China, and it’s besides very difficult to ideate him supporting a détente successful which US committedness to antiauthoritarian values is put connected nan backmost burner,” Bethany Allen, caput of China Investigations and Analysis astatine nan Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera.

As nan caput of nan US spy agency, Ratcliffe, who served arsenic Trump’s head of nationalist intelligence, is apt to prioritise nan alleged information threat posed by China.

In a 2020 op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, nan erstwhile Texas congressman described nan superpower arsenic nan “greatest threat to America today, and nan top threat to populist and state world-wide since World War II”.

While nan Soviet Union and counterterrorism consumed nan attraction of US intelligence agencies successful nan past, Ratcliffe wrote, nan existent circumstances “make plain that China should beryllium America’s superior nationalist information attraction going forward”.

Hegseth, Trump’s prime for defence chief, has voiced akin sentiments astir nan standard of nan Chinese threat.

The Army National Guard veteran, who is an different prime since he is neither a retired wide nor a erstwhile authorities charismatic pinch high-level nationalist information experience, has staked retired a hardline stance connected China successful media appearances.

During an quality connected nan Shawn Ryan Show connected YouTube earlier this month, Hegseth claimed that China was “building an service specifically dedicated to defeating nan United States of America”, arsenic good arsenic utilizing its power successful tech and manufacturing to amass world influence.

Hegseth said that China aimed to return complete Taiwan to summation power of its semiconductor industry, which produces nan lion’s stock of nan world proviso of precocious chips.

“They person a afloat spectrum semipermanent position of not conscionable location but world domination … The only measurement they tin instrumentality a building that tin service them is by defeating us,” he said. “They are eager capable to put successful a scheme to do it.”

Fellow seasoned Waltz, a retired Green Beret who served successful Afghanistan and Africa, has called China an “existential threat”, while Trump described him arsenic “an master connected nan threats posed by China, Russia, Iran, and world terrorism”.

In his book Hard Truths: Think and Lead Like a Green Beret, Waltz based on that nan US needed to amended its subject preparedness for a imaginable conflict pinch Beijing.

He has besides publically called connected Taiwan to ramp up its defence spending, which is owed to deed 2.45 percent of GDP successful 2025.

“We must study from Ukraine by addressing nan threat of nan CCP [Chinese Communist Party] and arming Taiwan NOW earlier it’s excessively late. That’s why I asked State & DoD [Department of Defense ] officials for a timeline and specifics connected really we scheme to bolster Taiwan’s self-defence capabilities,” he said successful a station connected X past year.

His comments echo remarks made by Trump, who said connected nan run way that Taiwanese defence spending should beryllium arsenic precocious arsenic 10 percent of GDP.

“Waltz is an ardent China hawk and has emphasised nan value of defending Taiwan,” Benjamin A Engel, a visiting professor astatine Dankook University successful South Korea, told Al Jazeera.

“He seems to judge strengthening alliances is important successful facing down China and has been a beardown advocator of improving relations pinch India for specified a purpose.”

Trump’s picks will beryllium “somewhat invited news” for friends specified arsenic Japan and South Korea, Engel said, “but not truthful charismatic to galore states successful Southeast Asia who would for illustration not to make a clear prime betwixt nan 2 awesome powers”.

Elon Musk speaks earlier Trump astatine a run rally astatine Madison Square Garden successful New York connected October 27, 2024 [Evan Vucci/AP]

Among these hawks, Musk stands retired arsenic 1 of nan fewer China-friendly figures successful Trump’s orbit.

As nan CEO of Tesla, Musk has extended business interests successful China, including a gigafactory successful Shanghai. China is besides Tesla’s second-biggest marketplace aft nan US.

As such, he could defy further US “decoupling” from China.

Musk has received disapproval from quality authorities advocates and US lawmakers, including Rubio, for his business dealings pinch China, including his determination successful 2022 to unfastened a showroom successful Xinjiang, wherever Beijing is accused of perpetrating quality authorities abuses against taste number Muslims.

The tech mogul has met pinch apical Chinese officials connected galore occasions, including meetings pinch then-Foreign Minister Qin Gang successful 2023 and Premier Li Qiang – China’s No 2 charismatic – this April.

Some of Musk’s reported comments astir China guidelines successful stark opposition to nan hawkish views of different members of Trump’s soul circle.

According to Walter Isaacson’s 2023 curriculum vitae of Musk, nan billionaire reportedly told journalist Bari Weiss that location were “two sides” to China’s curen of nan Uighurs and that his societal media level X would “have to beryllium observant astir nan words it utilized regarding China, because Tesla’s business could beryllium threatened”.

In a 2022 question and reply pinch The Financial Times, Musk sparked contention by suggesting that Taiwan go a “special administrative zone” of China for illustration Hong Kong and Macau.

“My recommendation… would beryllium to fig retired a typical administrative area for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, astir apt won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I deliberation probably, successful fact, that they could person an statement that’s much lenient than Hong Kong,” he said.

He doubled down connected nan remarks during an quality astatine nan All-In Tech acme successful Los Angeles later that year, saying that Taiwan was an “integral” portion of China that would not beryllium without nan assistance of nan US Pacific Fleet.

Some of Washington’s Asian friends whitethorn beryllium displeased astir Trump’s prime of Stefanik arsenic UN ambassador, said Ian Chong, an adjunct professor of governmental subject astatine nan National University of Singapore.

Stefanik has accused nan CCP of “blatant and malicious predetermination interference” and infiltrating assemblage campuses, arsenic good arsenic calling for a “complete reassessment” of US backing for nan UN owed to nan body’s disapproval of Israel’s warfare successful Gaza.

Chong said while Stefanik fits pinch Trump’s “America first” ideology, she could spark clash pinch US friends who proceed to support nan UN.

He besides cautioned that Trump’s picks whitethorn not past nan long of his four-year word fixed his unpredictability arsenic a leader.

“Even if you person personification for illustration Rubio, really overmuch he tin do successful position of moving pinch Taiwan, aliases successful truth pinch nan different East Asian friends of nan United States, mightiness beryllium somewhat curtailed,” Chong told Al Jazeera.

“We besides cognize from nan erstwhile management that Trump has a wont of cycling done his officials rather quickly.”

“We person to support an oculus retired for who mightiness beryllium successful nan second, 3rd aliases 4th rounds, and really agelong nan existent appointee stays,” Chong added.

“Even if we cognize what nan lineup looks for illustration going into January, location is still a grade of uncertainty that this is nan measurement Trump runs things.”