Trump 2.0: Will China and Imran Khan test Pakistan ties with the US?

Islamabad, Pakistan – Amid a flurry of congratulatory messages from governmental leaders worldwide pursuing his triumph successful nan US statesmanlike election, Donald Trump received a connection from an unexpected source: Pakistan’s erstwhile Prime Minister Imran Khan, his “very bully friend” who is presently successful jail.

In a brief, 55-word station connected his X societal media account, Khan congratulated Trump connected his triumph and said nan will of nan American group “held against each odds”.

“President Elect Trump will beryllium bully for Pak-US relations based connected communal respect for populist and quality rights. We dream he will push for peace, quality rights, and populist globally,” Khan’s connection read.

Congratulations connected behalf of myself & PTI to @realDonaldTrump for winning nan US Presidential Elections. The will of nan American group held against each odds.

President Elect Trump will beryllium bully for Pak-US relations based connected communal respect for populist & quality rights. We hope…

— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) November 6, 2024

The station points to immoderate of nan ways successful which a profoundly divided Pakistan’s narration pinch nan US nether a 2nd Trump presidency could beryllium tested, opportunity analysts.

Will Trump intervene connected Khan’s behalf?

While astir experts judge Pakistan is improbable to beryllium a privilege for nan caller administration, Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is hopeful that Trump’s triumph could easiness nan governmental troubles faced by nan erstwhile premier minister, who conscionable 2 years agone accused nan US, nether President Joe Biden, of meddling successful Pakistan’s home authorities to region him from power.

Former Pakistan president and a elder personnel of PTI, Arif Alvi, congratulated Trump for his victory, adding that “free and fair” elections allowed “the citizens of America to make their dreams travel true”.

“We look guardant to continued practice arsenic antiauthoritarian nations. Indeed, your triumph must person sent shivers down nan spine of dictators and aspiring dictators of nan world,” Alvi wrote connected level X.

But Pakistan’s officials appeared assured that nan US nether Trump would not unit them for Khan’s merchandise – and laid down Islamabad’s reddish statement connected nan matter.

“Pakistan and nan United States are aged friends and partners, and we will proceed to prosecute our relations connected nan ground of communal respect, communal assurance and noninterference successful each other’s home affairs,” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch told reporters connected Thursday.

Joshua White, a erstwhile White House charismatic for South Asian affairs nether nan Obama administration, suggested that engagement pinch Pakistan will apt beryllium a “low priority” for Trump’s team.

White, now a non-resident chap astatine nan Brookings Institution, noted that Pakistan is chiefly viewed done a counterterrorism lens successful Washington, pinch “little appetite” for renewing a broader information aliases economical partnership.

“It’s plausible that personification successful Trump’s circle mightiness promote him to reside Khan’s lawsuit aliases nan PTI’s position much generally,” White told Al Jazeera, “but it is improbable he would usage nan US government’s power to unit nan Pakistani subject connected this matter.”

After Khan was removed done a parliamentary ballot of nary assurance successful April 2022, he accused nan US of colluding pinch Pakistan’s military to region him, a declare some Washington and Islamabad deny.

But relations person since warmed gradually betwixt nan 2 nations, pinch nan Biden management appointing Donald Blome arsenic US ambassador to Pakistan successful May 2022, filling a position vacant since August 2018.

Throughout nan crackdown connected Khan and PTI, including Khan’s imprisonment since August 2023, US authorities person mostly refrained from commenting, citing it arsenic an soul matter for Pakistan to resolve.

However, pursuing arguable wide elections successful February, wherever nan PTI claimed their mostly was curtailed done a “mandate theft”, nan US stopped short of characterising nan predetermination arsenic free and fair.

Congress subsequently held a hearing connected nan “future of democracy” successful Pakistan, spurred by legislators urging President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to scrutinise nan predetermination outcome. In October, much than 60 antiauthoritarian legislators urged Biden to usage Washington’s power pinch Pakistan to unafraid Khan’s release.

Although Trump had criticised Pakistan successful his first term, accusing it of providing “nothing but lies and deceit”, he developed a rapport pinch Khan during nan latter’s premiership from 2018 to 2022.

The 2 first met successful Washington successful July 2019 and again successful Davos successful January 2020, wherever Trump referred to Khan arsenic his “very bully friend”. By contrast, relations betwixt Khan and Biden were frosty, pinch Khan often complaining astir Biden ne'er making interaction pinch him.

Just days earlier nan November 5 election, Atif Khan, a elder PTI leader, besides met Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, to talk concerns astir Khan’s incarceration.

Maleeha Lodhi, a erstwhile Pakistani ambassador to nan US and nan UK, questioned expectations that Trump mightiness intervene connected Khan’s behalf.

“While Trump and Khan enjoyed a lukewarm relationship, Pakistan does not fig prominently among US overseas argumentation priorities,” Lodhi told Al Jazeera. “Relations are astatine a crossroads and request redefinition, but it’s unclear really willing a Trump management would beryllium successful engaging connected this front.”

Will Pakistan matter much – aliases little – to nan US nether Trump?

Foreign argumentation master Muhammad Faisal added that Pakistan, which had immoderate engagement pinch nan US nether Trump owed to nan Afghanistan conflict, whitethorn now person little attraction arsenic nan management grapples pinch issues for illustration Gaza, Ukraine, and US-China tensions.

“The presidency will beryllium much focused connected home argumentation and world waste and acquisition issues. Pakistan’s home authorities is not a taxable of communal liking for nan incoming Trump administration,” nan Sydney-based expert said.

Still, immoderate spot Pakistan’s relevance to US interests perchance expanding if tensions successful nan Middle East rise, peculiarly pinch Iran.

“Pakistan’s value whitethorn turn if tensions betwixt nan US and Iran escalate,” Washington-based geopolitical commentator Uzair Younus told Al Jazeera. “In specified a scenario, Pakistan could service arsenic a partner to limit nan power of Iran’s location proxies.”

The China test

Pakistan’s ties pinch China could besides travel nether nan microscope, said different observers.

China, Pakistan’s longstanding ally, has invested heavy successful Pakistan done nan $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship task nether Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Pakistan’s expanding economical dependence connected China has led to concerns among world lenders, peculiarly fixed Pakistan’s $130bn debt, pinch 30 percent owed to China.

Niloufer Siddiqui, an subordinate professor of governmental subject astatine nan University astatine Albany, State University of New York, said Pakistan mightiness person 2 reasons to stay wary nether Trump.

“The first is that overseas assistance to Pakistan whitethorn beryllium further trim during his tenure. The 2nd is that fixed Trump’s hawkishness connected China, Pakistan whitethorn find itself caught betwixt wanting to amended relations pinch nan United States but still support its adjacent strategical confederation pinch China. This balancing enactment is apt to get trickier nether Trump,” she told Al Jazeera.

While Pakistan was 1 of nan highest recipients of US assistance during nan first years of nan warfare successful Afghanistan, nan past six years person seen a drastic reduction, pinch nan state receiving conscionable much than $950m of aid, according to a 2023 Congress report.

White, nan erstwhile Obama authorities official, echoed this sentiment, noting that Trump’s advisers are apt to position China arsenic an adversary and could truthful attack Pakistan pinch immoderate caution, perceiving it arsenic an state of Beijing.

“The incoming Trump squad is apt to beryllium led by officials who spot China successful stark position arsenic a political, military, and economical adversary of nan United States. As such, they will beryllium inclined to position Pakistan pinch suspicion arsenic a state wrong China’s sphere of influence,” he added.

As Trump’s inauguration successful January approaches, nan adjacent fewer months will uncover really relations betwixt nan US and Pakistan mightiness evolve, opportunity experts. But ultimately, they propose that immoderate important alteration is unlikely.

“With nan US apt investing its attraction and power connected China and nan Indo-Pacific region, and a warfare successful Afghanistan nary longer occupying American attention, nan astir Pakistan tin dream for is continued engagement connected nan economy, ambiance alteration and counterterrorism,” Fahd Humayun, an adjunct professor of governmental subject astatine Tufts University, told Al Jazeera.