Spies like them: The intelligence war between Iran, Israel

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The charging of CIA charismatic Asif Rahman for allegedly leaking US intelligence of Israeli preparations for retaliatory strikes connected Iran successful October has brought into unfastened position nan protector warfare of espionage and counterespionage that has raged betwixt actors locked successful a location conflict for decades.

The Iran-based Telegram transmission Rahman is accused of leaking to disavows immoderate relationship pinch Iran’s government, but that nan matter has embarrassed a US management reeling from an earlier conviction of different of its officers, Jack Teixeira, for leaking Pentagon papers is undeniable.

The Rahman leak provides a glimpse into nan murky interplay of Iranian, Israeli and US spy agencies that person helped style nan existent conflict and, almost arsenic importantly, our cognition of it.

Catching spies

In precocious October, Israel’s soul information agency, Shin Bet, said it had arrested 7 Israeli nationals surviving successful occupied East Jerusalem connected suspicion of carrying retired espionage connected Iran’s behalf.

A time earlier, different 7 Israeli nationals successful Haifa had been arrested connected suspicion of aiding nan enemy, successful this case, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, successful wartime.

Israeli constabulary sources confirmed that much Iran-aligned cells operating successful nan state are suspected.

This isn’t new. In September, 73-year-old Israeli businessman Moti Maman was besides accused by Shin Bet and nan Israeli constabulary of moving pinch Iranian intelligence, allegedly offering to termination Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and different governmental figures successful return for an beforehand costs of $1m.

Conversely, Iran has arrested respective of its citizens passim Israel’s warfare connected Gaza connected charges of having collaborated pinch nan Israeli spy agency Mossad.

An Iranian man walks past a immense anti-Israeli banner

In December, Iran executed 3 men and a female accused of acting connected behalf of Mossad successful Iran and undertaking acts, from sabotage to nan kidnapping of Iranian information officials.

In September, successful nan aftermath of attacks attributed to Israel connected nan communications systems of Iran’s state Hezbollah, Iran announced nan arrests of 12 citizens connected charges of collaborating pinch Israel and readying attacks successful nan country.

Espionage successful a changing world

While physics intercepts, surveillance and monitoring of societal media person go valuable intelligence tools, quality intelligence remains cardinal to accusation gathering and subject targeting.

“Human intelligence plays a important domiciled successful nan ongoing covert warfare betwixt Israel and Iran,” Sina Toossi, a elder chap astatine nan Center for International Policy, said.

“Both countries are heavy engaged successful intelligence gathering pinch espionage and counterespionage operations informing their broader strategical calculations,” he added.

The Israelis arrested successful Haifa are accused of 600 to 700 intelligence-gathering missions for Iran complete 2 years, including targeting a elder charismatic – presumably for imaginable assassination akin to Israel’s high-profile assassinations, including that of Hamas governmental leader Ismail Haniyeh successful Iran successful July.

“In Iran, Israel demonstrated its capabilities done a bid of high-profile assassinations and sabotage missions, often attributed to Mossad’s heavy penetration.

“On nan different hand, Iran has made efforts to found quality intelligence networks successful Israel, arsenic highlighted by nan caller arrests of respective Israeli citizens accused of spying for Iran,” Toossi said.

Turning nan tide

Israel pinch its mini and mostly cohesive nine has agelong been considered almost impregnable by overseas spy agencies, defence expert Hamze Attar said.

However, nan strains of nan existent conflict, nan emergence of nan utmost correct and bitter divisions complete nan 2023 judicial reforms championed by Netanyahu person worked astatine pre-existing societal cracks, resulting successful a fundamentally changed Israeli society.

A female walks past an anti-American mural connected nan wall of nan erstwhile U.S Embassy successful Tehran, Iran

It is into those divisions, analysts person suggested, that Iranian intelligence is making inroads.

That nan first group of nan 14 agents arrested successful Haifa had immigrated to Israel from Azerbaijan 10 years agone and nan 2nd group was regarded arsenic Arab Israelis and, therefore, somewhat extracurricular Israel’s mainstream is significant, according to Attar.

“This [was] huge,” he said.

“Israel has been thought of arsenic … a azygous identity, 1 taught from an early property that they are nether changeless threat of onslaught from their Arab neighbours.”

“If Iran tin move these 2 groups” into acting connected its behalf successful Israel, “they tin move more,” he said.

Great games

Iran’s attempts to penetrate Israeli nine are only precocious coming to ray while location has agelong been sum of Israel’s usage of covert intelligence connected Iran.

Aiding Israel’s efforts is Iran’s sheer size pinch a organization that dwarfs Israel’s astatine a standard of astir 9.5 to 1 and societal and governmental responsibility lines moving done its nine – from protests against nan 2022 decease of Mahsa Amini for allegedly not wearing her headscarf correctly to minorities demanding much rights.

“Israel’s stated purpose since nan Iranian Revolution of 1979 is to foment nan overthrow of nan authorities from within,” Ahron Bregman of nan Department of War Studies astatine King’s College London said.

“That informs nan measurement they work. Israel has had a agelong play to plan, to enlistee and to building their intelligence wrong Iran,” he said.

In contrast, Iran appears to person invested overmuch of its semipermanent readying successful assembling a web of allies, specified arsenic Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which supply it pinch information.

Intelligence activities appeared to attraction chiefly connected recruiting Palestinians moving wrong Israel, wherever they often look prejudice, aliases comparatively low-risk efforts to penetrate Israeli nine via societal media

Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated this greeting successful Tehran. [Reuters/Mohammed Salem]

In January, sources successful Israel claimed Iranian intelligence had been looking to utilization celebrated anger complete some nan judicial changes and nan chartless destiny of nan captives taken into Gaza to stoke dissent and seduce Israelis to photograph nan properties of elder officials.

Nevertheless, “Israel’s intelligence operations wrong Iran look importantly much developed and extensive,” Toossi said.

“The assassination of Iranian scientists, high-profile figures for illustration Ismail Haniyeh, nan sabotage of atomic accommodation and Israel’s proven expertise to transportation retired strikes heavy wrong Iran each item really efficaciously it has infiltrated nan country’s astir delicate sectors.”

Chasing clicks

For Iran, planting demonstrably mendacious stories intended for an opposing spy agency to prime up and publicise, only to past disprove and discredit nan opposing agency, tin beryllium a powerful limb successful nan conflict for influence, analysts said.

“Iran has a grounds of planting mendacious stories for Western outlets – including foreign-based Persian-language outlets pinch links to Israel and Gulf countries – to prime up, which it tin past beryllium mendacious and summation much credibility,” Veena Ali-Khan, a chap astatine nan Century Foundation, said.

“[There] were reports successful Israeli media that [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brigadier General Esmail] Qaani was dormant aliases detained for espionage purposes earlier he was proved by Iran to beryllium very overmuch alive.

“Once again, authorities media emphasised that Western media … were wholly incorrect astir Qaani, reinforcing their logic that Western outlets should not beryllium trusted,” she said.

Deterrence

Controlling nan nationalist communicative tin beryllium arsenic captious for maintaining deterrence arsenic it tin beryllium for undermining your opponent, Bregman suggested.

“The Shin Bet and nan constabulary are publicising these arrests deliberately. It’s astir deterring others,” he said, explaining a rationale astatine likelihood pinch nan privacy-driven information services of celebrated imagination.

“They’re publicising their efforts. They’re letting group cognize that they’re there, they’ll drawback them.”

Hezbollah drone footage claims to show surveillance complete Israel

Likewise, Toossi pointed out, nan publicity surrounding nan caller arrests masked galore failures connected nan portion of Israeli intelligence, not slightest its nonaccomplishment to foresee nan devastating Hamas-led attacks of October 7 past year.

“It’s important to recognise that Israel and its supportive media often task an image of invincibility regarding Israeli intelligence that doesn’t ever align pinch reality,” he wrote by email, noting that nan timing of nan well-publicised pager and walkie-talkie attacks connected Hezbollah successful mid-September was forced upon Israel erstwhile concerns complete nan operation’s find gained crushed wrong Mossad.

“Despite Israel’s tactical successes, nan conception of Israeli invincibility successful nan covert realm aliases different is greatly undermined by nan country’s progressively precarious strategical situation.

“Israel’s intelligence capabilities are formidable, but it is still facing sustained guidance and awesome challenges connected aggregate fronts,” he wrote.