Russia, Ukraine and the Koreas: Could Trump rock emerging wartime deals?

A laser beam downs drones by heating up and “frying” their electronics – each invisible, soundless “shot” is much precise and little costly than an aerial defence missile.

Hanwha Aerospace, a South Korean defence company, has fire-tested and is astir to commencement mass-producing nan world’s first-ever optical fibre laser weapon.

And Hanwha is fresh to proviso it to Ukraine if Seoul lifts a prohibition connected nan export of lethal weapons to Kyiv “in ray of North Korean subject activities”, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said successful precocious October.

His connection followed North Korea’s deployment of astir 10,000 soldiers to occidental Russia, becoming nan first overseas powerfulness to measurement into nan Russia-Ukrainian war.

However, nan US president-elect whitethorn guidelines successful nan way.

Donald Trump and his fledgling management members person many times said that they want to limit US subject assistance to Ukraine – aliases moreover extremity it altogether.

Seoul whitethorn person to travel suit, 2 South Korean officials told Bloomberg connected Thursday.

However, a personnel of nan Ukrainian delegation that visited Seoul earlier this period doubts it.

“I don’t deliberation they will refuse. They seemed alternatively independent and self-sufficient successful their negotiated and subject politics,” Roman Bochkala, co-founder of a Ukrainian kindness money that delivers arms and different important supplies to nan beforehand line, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s paramount to [South] Korea to maximally compensate for nan imaginable threat of existent combat acquisition nan North Korean service mightiness get,” he said.

Another Ukrainian expert agreed – but said that Seoul whitethorn not waste different lethal weaponry to Kyiv.

“Such [weaponry] will astir apt not beryllium limited, but we will person to salary for it,” Kyiv-based expert Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera. “But Seoul will hardly make artillery shells for us. And won’t nonstop immoderate tanks.”

South Korea has reportedly supplied hundreds of thousands of artillery shells via nan United States and pledged a $2.3bn low-interest indebtedness to Kyiv.

Seoul is nan world’s 10th-largest arms exporter, and its clients already see 4 nations that separator Russia – Poland, Estonia, Finland and Norway.

But Kyiv whitethorn beryllium nan first to person nan lasers successful what could importantly sound down nan value of Ukraine’s aerial defence.

“[South] Koreans committedness that their laser will fry force drones pinch an almost 100 percent guarantee, destroying engines aliases different physics instrumentality wrong 10-20 seconds,” Bochkala said.

The South Korean systems will supplement Patriots, precocious aerial defence systems that costs $1bn each and request $4m missiles that are often spent connected downing Russia’s $50,000 drones.

The laser needs thing but energy – and could beryllium deployed to nan Ukrainian cities that person nary Patriots aliases akin Western aliases Taiwanese aerial defence systems.

“There are ne'er excessively galore bully friends. And South Korea whitethorn go 1 for Ukraine,” Bochkala said.

North Koreans successful Kursk

In early August, Ukrainian forces seized a chunk of Russia’s westernmost Kursk region – and person held connected to astir of it.

Kyiv hoped that Moscow would deploy troops from nan beforehand lines of nan eastbound Ukrainian region of Donbas to repel nan astonishment penetration that roiled nan Russian populace.

“Many didn’t springiness a damn astir nan warfare until Ukrainians entered Kursk. Now, they’re volunteering successful droves, because nan motherland is successful danger,” a Moscow resident told Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity.

But it took nan Kremlin weeks to commencement nan counteroffensive arsenic it kept connected pushing successful Donbas, taking respective important towns and villages.

[Al Jazeera]

North Korean soldiers joined nan fray earlier this month, according to Western and Ukrainian intelligence and officials.

“It importantly boosts nan enemy’s potential,” Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko, erstwhile lawman caput of Ukraine’s wide unit of equipped forces, told Al Jazeera.

However, Moscow decided not to ore nan North Koreans successful 1 spot alternatively deploying mini groups to Russian units.

“They are not collected successful 1 fist, which would person been much effective had location been a [North Korean] section aliases a brigade,” Romanenko said.

With immoderate 1.3 cardinal servicemen and millions of reservists, North Korea has 1 of nan world’s largest armies.

It is equipped pinch Soviet-era weaponry aliases its domestically produced replicas.

And though nan Kursk deployment whitethorn look sensational, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un successful truth “mirrors” what a South Korean leader did half a period ago, according to expert Kushch.

Between 1964 and 1973, erstwhile South Korea was poorer and little industrialised than nan pro-Communist North, South Korean President Park Chong-hee deployed immoderate 350,000 soldiers to Washington’s warfare Vietnam – on pinch tens of thousands of workers.

In exchange, he secured multibillion-dollar US investments, credits and exertion transfers that helped move South Korea into 1 of nan world’s astir technologically precocious and able nations.

Vietnam accused South Koreans of warfare crimes, but Park paid nary heed arsenic nan economical roar helped him cement his grip connected power.

‘Putin will reserve a Korean trump card’

Kim Jong Un is arsenic unceremonious arsenic Moscow props his nation’s system pinch billions of dollars paid for arms and ammunition, discounted supplies of energy, nutrient and technologies.

Kim’s Kursk deployment whitethorn go a powerful bargaining spot successful nan ceasefire talks pinch President-elect Donald Trump’s early administration.

“Putin will reserve a Korean trump paper up his sleeve earlier early talks pinch Trump – aliases for nan last onslaught successful nan Kursk region that for now seems to beryllium maximally delayed,” Kushch said.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian troops successful Kursk repelled a monolithic Russian beforehand and reported first losses among North Koreans.

The deployment whitethorn look for illustration Putin’s weakness amid reports of a dire shortage of manpower, but nan statement successful Russia is: “Let them conflict alternatively of us,” according to Volodymyr Fesenko, caput of nan Kyiv-based Penta deliberation tank.

Meanwhile, nan rapprochement betwixt Moscow and Pyongyang apt irks Beijing, North Korea’s main backer, according to Fesenko.

“North Korea is eluding China’s monopolistic influence, and Russia’s clout successful Beijing’s ain backmost gait is connected nan rise,” he told Al Jazeera.

There is besides a important consequence of escalation connected nan Korean Peninsula arsenic “after battle-testing his troops successful a existent war, Kim whitethorn get excited by nan smell of blood,” Fesenko said.