Israel’s maximalist demands unlikely to lead to ceasefire with Hezbollah

Beirut, Lebanon – As Israel sends mixed messages astir a ceasefire pinch nan Lebanese group Hezbollah, analysts opportunity nan warfare is apt to intensify successful nan coming months.

On November 6, Israel’s apical general, Herzi Halevi, told reporters nan service was drafting up plans to grow its run against Hezbollah.

At nan aforesaid time, he claimed Israel was amping up negotiated efforts to unafraid a truce.

Feigning diplomacy

“Israel makes these statements to effort and push nan blasted connected Hezbollah,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a elder chap astatine nan Carnegie Middle East Center successful Beirut.

He is 1 of galore analysts who judge Israel is feigning diplomacy arsenic it prepares to grow an indefinite warfare connected Lebanon. So far, that warfare has destroyed dozens of separator villages, killed much than 3,000 group and uprooted 1.2 cardinal group from their homes.

Israel has utilized a similar strategy successful Gaza arsenic it participated successful ceasefire talks pinch Hamas for much than a year.

Whenever a woody was close, Israel would alteration its position moreover if nan connection astatine manus was endorsed by its main ally, nan United States.

Israel would past blasted Hamas for not accepting nan caller conditions, each nan while expanding its subject battle successful Gaza, which has killed much than 43,000 people, displaced astir its full 2.3 cardinal organization and drawn accusations of genocide from UN bodies and experts.

Israel is now applying a akin playbook to Lebanon, Hage Ali said.

“[Calling for a ceasefire] is portion of [Israel’s] messaging to nan Lebanese and to Lebanon. They’re saying, ‘We want peace, but it’s Hezbollah that doesn’t want it,’” he told Al Jazeera.

Israeli ceasefire terms?

On October 30, Israel’s nationalist broadcaster published a leaked ceasefire proposal by nan US authorities that is believed to bespeak Israel’s demands.

The connection called for Israel to retreat its forces from Lebanon wrong nan first week of a 60-day ceasefire and for nan Lebanese service to “disarm” Hezbollah.

It would besides licence Israel to proceed attacking targets successful confederate Lebanon to “respond to early threats”, maximalist position that analysts antecedently told Al Jazeera are unrealistic and unacceptable to Lebanon because they consequence causing civilian warfare and require Hezbollah’s afloat surrender.

But Hage Ali doesn’t judge Israel has immoderate volition of scaling backmost its terms.

Mourners comfortableness a female astatine nan ceremonial of a comparative who was killed successful Israeli strikes connected Joun successful Lebanon connected November 13, 2024 [Aziz Taher/Reuters]

“Will Israel beryllium capable to judge a woody beneath [its conditions]? I uncertainty it. There is nary denotation they will do that,” he told Al Jazeera.

Israel’s position make it difficult to envision a ceasefire pinch Hezbollah, according to Karim Emile Bitar, an master connected Lebanon and an subordinate professor of world relations astatine Lebanon’s Saint Joseph University.

“Talks of a ceasefire do not look superior because nan conditions magnitude to a complete and unconditional surrender by Hezbollah, and I do not spot either Hezbollah aliases [its main backer] Iran going on pinch this capitulation,” he told Al Jazeera.

Buying time

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agelong been adjacent to US President-elect Donald Trump.

During Trump’s first word arsenic president from 2017 to 2021,  he helped Netanyahu hide Palestinian aspirations for self-determination by emboldening Israel’s far-right settler movement.

He moved nan US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a move that formally recognised nan disputed metropolis arsenic nan Israeli superior and collapsed pinch decades of American policy.

Trump besides appointed David M Friedman, a protagonist of Israel’s settler movement, arsenic ambassador earlier past engineering nan Abraham Accords, a normalisation of relations betwixt Israel and 4 Arab states – Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and nan United Arab Emirates.

The Abraham Accords bypassed nan Arab Peace Initiative, nan Saudi-led connection outlining nan conditions nether which Arab states would normalise ties pinch Israel, namely nan statement of a sovereign Palestinian authorities connected Palestinian onshore that Israel has occupied since nan 1967 warfare pinch Arab countries.

With Trump assuming power of nan White House successful January, analysts judge Israel is dragging retired nan warfare connected Lebanon until he returns, astatine which constituent it will importantly intensify its battle connected Lebanon.

“With President Trump appointing hardliners [to his administration], Israel is receiving signals to intensify its approach,” said Imad Salamey, a professor of governmental subject astatine nan Lebanese American University.

Hezbollah’s calculations

Hezbollah is improbable to surrender and is prepared to conflict Israel for a prolonged period, Nicholas Blanford, an master connected Hezbollah pinch nan Atlantic Council think-tank said.

A advertisement successful Tel Aviv shows US President-elect Donald Trump and nan Israeli and American flags connected November 6, 2024, a time aft Trump won nan statesmanlike predetermination [Oded Balilty/AP Photo]

“It will beryllium important from Hezbollah’s position that it comes retired of this pinch an statement successful which it doesn’t look for illustration Israel has won,” he told Al Jazeera.

Blanford noted that Hezbollah is still fighting, launching missiles into bluish Israel and confronting Israeli soldiers making incursions into Lebanese territory.

In his view, Hezbollah would invited Israeli plans to grow its crushed penetration because it would require it to usage armoured vehicles alternatively than marching into Lebanese territory connected foot.

He explained that armoured vehicles and tanks are excessively dense to thrust up and complete nan hilly terrain successful confederate Lebanon and, therefore, will request to enactment successful nan valleys, making them susceptible to explosives and ambushes from nan hills.

He besides feels Hezbollah will push up sloppy of nan massive humanitarian crisis Lebanon is facing.

[Al Jazeera]

“I don’t deliberation Hezbollah will soften their demands to execute a ceasefire much quickly truthful that they tin commencement to reside nan societal use needs of their constituents,” Blanford said.

Whenever nan group suffers a awesome blow, it calls connected its supporters to stay diligent and patient and is apt to rumor nan aforesaid telephone this clip to its supporters, who are mostly from Lebanon’s Shia communities and person mislaid homes, livelihoods, friends and loved ones.

Lebanon runs connected a strategy successful which governmental posts are allocated based connected nan sect and Hezbollah has consolidated power complete nan Shia organization by mixing guidance against Israel, belief and personality into a doctrine that resonates pinch many.

Blanford believes Hezbollah will support calling connected its constituents to stay patient until Israel agrees to a much acceptable ceasefire proposal.

“It is much apt they travel retired of this warfare pinch a face-saving deal. Everything other is secondary to that.”