Could RFK Jr, Trump’s presumptive health secretary, ban vaccines?

When President-elect Donald Trump said he would nominate Robert F Kennedy Jr, 1 of nan nation’s astir salient anti-vaccine activity leaders, to lead nan Health and Human Services Department, immoderate societal media users warned Americans to update their vaccines.

“IMPORTANT – vaccines could now beryllium BANNED for portion of this wintertime by Trump and RFK Jr, though hopefully immoderate specified prohibition would get halted pinch an injunction successful court,” publication a November 15 station connected societal media app Threads. “GET CAUGHT UP ON VACCINES NOW – conscionable successful case.”

For 2 decades, RFK Jr has repeated mendacious and misleading claims astir subject and nationalist health. His unsuccessful statesmanlike run of conspiracy theories earned him PolitiFact’s 2023 Lie of nan Year. Kennedy, nephew of Democratic President John F Kennedy and boy of erstwhile statesmanlike campaigner Senator Robert Kennedy Sr from New York, ran arsenic an independent earlier suspending his run successful August and backing Trump.

Scientists signalled siren astatine Trump’s determination to pat RFK Jr. There are 13 agencies housed wrong that department, including nan US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), nan Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and nan National Institutes of Health (NIH).

‘The outlook is murky’

Scientists were acold from unsocial successful expressing interest astir what Kennedy could do arsenic Health and Human Services secretary.

“Serious mobility – tin he outlaw vaccines?” 1 Threads personification asked November 14. “Like if I want to get a COVID and flu vaccine adjacent year, is it imaginable they won’t beryllium available?”

The outlook is murky, partially because nary 1 tin beryllium judge what RFK Jr will do. On November 6, earlier Trump officially tapped him for nan seat, Kennedy told an NBC News reporter, “If vaccines are moving for somebody, I’m not going to return them away.”

Vaccine rule and argumentation experts told PolitiFact that Kennedy could not unilaterally prohibition vaccines and that immoderate effort to prohibition vaccines would apt look a ineligible battle. But RFK Jr could still trim really accessible they are for Americans, they said. And immoderate of his powerfulness rests connected whether Trump’s management tin get buy-in from different legislators and nationalist wellness leaders, immoderate of whom Trump could besides appoint.

Wendy Parmet, a Northeastern University rule professor and nan head of nan rule school’s Center for Health Policy and Law, said RFK Jr could not prohibition vaccines “by fiat”, aliases pinch 1 bid aliases decree.

He could, however, “begin nan process of having nan FDA re-review nan information of vaccines and move to revoke aliases spot restrictions connected immoderate vaccine approvals”, she said. “But this would return clip and would undoubtedly beryllium challenged successful court.”

There are limits to nan Health and Human Services secretary’s level of power complete vaccines, Parmet said. But if he is confirmed, RFK Jr would “control nan group who power nan agencies that person a batch of authority complete vaccines”, she added.

He could person those group enactment to limit entree by revoking vaccine licences aliases directing nan CDC to alteration its vaccine messaging and recommendations, which would impact security sum and aesculapian practice, Parmet said.

Still, “there is nary authority to prohibition vaccines arsenic a group nationwide,” she said. “He would request an enactment of Congress for that.”

For years, RFK Jr has reiterated that vaccines are unsafe [File: Mark Makela/Reuters]

‘Procedural requirements’

Dorit Reiss, a vaccine rule and argumentation master astatine University of California Law, San Francisco, told PolitiFact that national regulations dictate really approved vaccines are taken disconnected nan market.

“You request to meet procedural requirements and show that nan removal was not arbitrary and capricious,” she said. “And nan main character connected that is nan FDA commissioner, not nan secretary, and we do not cognize who that will be” aliases whether they would beryllium “sympathetic to nan thought yet”.

The regulations opportunity nan FDA commissioner – whom Trump would besides name – could statesman nan licence revocation process if nan commissioner finds that “the licensed merchandise is not safe and effective for each of its intended uses.”

For years, RFK Jr’s refrain has been that vaccines are unsafe. In July 2023, he told a podcaster that immoderate vaccines “are astir apt averting much problems than they’re causing”, but successful nan aforesaid activity he maintained: “There’s nary vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective.”

After notifying nan shaper of nan agency’s scheme to revoke a vaccine licence, nan FDA commissioner would person to clasp a proceeding and besides supply nan shaper “reasonable” clip to execute compliance pinch immoderate nan authorities had asked of them.

“Manufacturers whitethorn good writer if they disagree,” Reiss from nan University of California Law said. “If location is nary capable justification, (they) whitethorn triumph successful tribunal against nan revocation.”

Kennedy could make vaccines little accessible

Reiss said it’s easier to extremity nan support of caller vaccines than to revoke entree to existing vaccines, but it would require an FDA commissioner who is receptive to nan idea.

She added that, arsenic secretary, JFK Jr could, for example, rescind emergency usage authorisations for COVID-19 vaccinations for children, which would consequence successful children younger than 12 losing entree to those vaccines.

He could besides nominate aliases region members of national advisory committees, including nan Advisory Committee connected Immunization Practices, which recommends vaccines that nan CDC reviews and adopts. He could capable nan committee pinch group who clasp antivaccine beliefs who could past rescind vaccine recommendations, Reiss said.

Parmet said nan CDC’s adopted vaccine recommendations find nan vaccines “covered without charge” nether nan Affordable Care Act and nan immunisations disposable nether nan Vaccines for Children program, which provides vaccines to Medicaid-enrolled and uninsured children.

Robert F Kennedy Jr is broadcast connected a ample surface arsenic he speaks during an anti-vaccine rally successful beforehand of nan Lincoln Memorial successful Washington connected January 23, 2022. [Patrick Semansky/AP Photo]

JFK Jr could undermine assistance programmes that support authorities and section immunisation, specified arsenic nan CDC’s Section 317 Immunization Program, a reference to Section 317 of nan Public Health Service Act.

The programme intends to guarantee that children and adults are immunised by awarding national assistance money to authorities and section nationalist wellness agencies to support vaccine purchases and cognition costs, nan 317 Coalition, a vaccine defense nonprofit, said. Its 2023 study to Congress said astir of nan programme’s backing supports nan mandatory Vaccines for Children program.

Pennsylvania’s Health Department says nan programme “plays a captious domiciled successful achieving nationalist immunisation sum targets and reductions successful disease”. Oklahoma’s State Department of Health described nan programme arsenic “a precious nationalist resource” that provides regular vaccination for group without security and responds to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Even without changes to charismatic vaccine recommendations, Parmet said “informal changes” successful CDC recommendations mightiness alteration parents’ willingness to vaccinate their children, power states’ vaccination proposal and impact immoderate paediatricians’ practice.

“In different words, by simply changing nan wording connected its website”, nan CDC could “discourage aliases trim vaccine uptake”, she said.

Legal challenges, manufacture pushback

If Kennedy’s agency tried to enact a nationwide prohibition without immoderate legislature action, nan effort would apt look successful ineligible challenges, Parmet said.

It’s unclear whether a vaccine prohibition would triumph legislature support, but antivaccine legislators person made gains successful statehouses nationwide successful caller years, passing authorities that removes vaccine requirements for homeschooled children aliases preemptively prohibits schools from requiring students to person COVID-19 vaccines.

JFK Jr could besides statesman to person nan FDA rereview vaccine information and move to revoke aliases restrict immoderate vaccine approvals. But those actions, “would return clip and would undoubtedly beryllium challenged successful court”, Parmet said.

Reiss from nan University of California Law said existing laws and regulations could constrain JFK Jr.

“He cannot break definitive statutory provisions unless they change, and needs to contend pinch different agency heads,” specified arsenic nan group successful complaint of nan CDC and FDA, she said.

Just arsenic he will sanction nan Health and Human Services caput and FDA commissioner, Trump will name nan CDC and National Institutes of Health commissioners. In 2025, each these roles will request Senate approval, and nan Senate will person a Republican mostly successful January. Trump had not announced his picks for these jobs arsenic of November 20.

Kennedy could “certainly effort and seduce these people, and there’s immoderate inter-dependence – they request nan caput to walk rules and to name group to advisory committees,” Reiss said. “But it’s nan president who has nan removal powerfulness complete them, not nan secretary.”

It’s besides apt pharmaceutical companies would defy by lobbying against efforts to prohibition vaccines and suing nan government, Reiss said.

PolitiFact Researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report.